Published On: Mon, Mar 23rd, 2020

Arsenal news: Premier League simulation calculates Gunners’ Champions League chances | Football | Sport

Arsenal’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League next season have been scientifically calculated courtesy of the Euro Club Index football rankings, which have rated each team’s percentage chances of qualifying for Europe’s premier competition.

The Index is a collaboration between Gracenote Sports and Hypercube Business Innovation and ranks all European clubs based on their results in certain competitions over the previous four years.

Updated daily, the rankings are then used to predict the results of the remaining matches of a season and are run through 100,000 simulations to find the most likely final standings.

The current rankings have Liverpool as the best team in Europe, with Barcelona between the Reds and Manchester City.

Manchester United and Chelsea take 10th and 11th place respectively while Arsenal are in 14th, two spots higher than Tottenham.

The 2019-20 Premier League season has currently been paused due to the global coronavirus pandemic but could get back underway next month with 10 rounds of fixtures remaining.

Per BBC Sport, Arsenal are slated to have an 8.91 per cent chance, which is higher than Sheffield United’s 7.59 per cent.

Spurs, however, are thought to have a 16.24 per cent chance while Wolves are marginally higher again at 17.34 per cent, though both have played one more game than the Gunners.

There is then a huge jump up to Manchester United, who are rated as highly as 73.75 per cent likely to qualify.

Chelsea are 80.7 per cent with Leicester boasting 94.81 per cent likelihood of a top-four spot, while Liverpool are already guaranteed to play in next year’s Champions League.

This is all assuming that Manchester City’s ban for breaking Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules withstands, though the Citizens have appealed against it to the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS).

The model sees Arsenal backed to finish eighth, a point below arch-rivals Spurs.

Elsewhere, Liverpool 25-point lead atop the table gives them 100 per cent certainty to win the league and they are backed to finish on 102 points.

Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth are three clubs tipped to suffer relegation, with Watford, Brighton and West Ham all narrowly surviving the drop.

From the Championship, Leeds and West Brom are predicted to take the automatic promotion spots while Fulham, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and Preston North End are backed to make up the play-offs.

Arsenal boss Arteta meanwhile said earlier this month of their top-four hopes: “I think that pressure is coming from the start of the season but when we were in December nobody talked about the Champions League.

“It was an impossible thing and now everybody talks like ‘yeah, we have to get the Champions League.

“Of course as Arsenal players, as a club, we have to fight for the Champions League but we have to go game by game.

“We changed a lot of things in the last two months, let’s go game by game, try to beat West Ham first and we will be closer.

“That’s all we can control because at the moment it is not in our hands. It is in the opponents hands. They have to fail and we have to win games to have a chance.”

Arsenal did beat the Hammers, 1-0, thanks to Alexandre Lacazette’s strike although rivals Chelsea, Manchester United and Sheffield United all won on the same weekend.

That leaves Arteta’s men sat ninth, five points from fifth-placed United having played a game less and eight points off Chelsea, who have also played one match more.

If the season does eventually resume, Arsenal have a tricky fixture list to contend with though and must face Manchester City, Wolves, Leicester, Spurs and Liverpool as well as a host of relegation-battling teams in their final 10 top-flight fixtures.

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